There are bets in the listings of bookmakers per goal in the last minutes. Usually this is the last 10 or 15 minutes of the fight. If we take the statistics of the goals of the European and other championships, we can see that the most goals are scored in the final segment.
For an illustrative example of a strategy game, consider the performance of teams from the Italian Championship:
We see that a little less than half of the clubs have a goal scoring rate in the last 15 minutes of a match that exceeds 20%. Dedicated teams are suitable for this betting strategy. If on last minute scored a goal one of the teams, then the bet will be winning.
Bet Methodology
We will bet online, in the middle of the second half. Matches are selected in advance, in which teams meet that have more than 25% of the matches in which they scored goals in the final 15 minutes. In this case, the probability of a goal will be at least 50%.
Next, you should find those that put quotes above 2 on similar positions. It is desirable that they approach 2.5. In this case last minute goal will bring tangible profits. Playing at such odds will be profitable in the long run. You need to bet 5-5.5% of the bank.
It is necessary to carefully analyze the clubs. In each championship there are teams that have more than 30% of meetings with goals at the end. They should be emphasized. It's not just teams betting on attacking play. They should play stronger in the end of all matches and often score. An example of such clubs is Inter 17-18 years old, in which the rate of effective endings exceeded 30%.
If two teams of approximately equal class meet with a high percentage of scoring endings of matches, then the probability of a goal in the final segment will be very high.
When choosing clubs, be sure to take into account their motivation. It is optimal when both clubs need a win, but a draw does not fit in any way. Return cup matches are suitable, in which one of the teams is always not satisfied with the current score.
A match should be missed if by the final segment both teams are satisfied with the current score, and they do not make efforts to score. Goals scored in the last minutes occur in the following matches:
- When the advantage of one of the teams is 1-2 goals. The opponent tries to score and goes forward with large forces. In such cases, the probability of a goal in any goal increases significantly.
- If a draw remains until the middle of the second half, which does not suit either side. In the end, they are forced to attack with large forces.
- If by the end of the game one of the teams has a big goal advantage. The opponent is trying to score a prestige goal. The winning team doesn't really mind this.
The state of the field should also be taken into account. If it is of poor quality, it is better to skip the game immediately. Hoping for a set piece or goal in extra time in such cases is not worth it.
If you like to watch football often, then you have probably seen a lot of goals in stoppage time. Sometimes your bet was held in the last second of the match, and sometimes it was the other way around. A goal in stoppage time robbed you of a win. If you think that the main number of goals is scored in the final segment of the match, then you are right.
If you break the game into time periods of 5 minutes, then the final five-minute period accounts for the most number of goals scored.
A similar situation is observed in all football tournaments and every year, if it changes, it is insignificant. Since such a pattern is not one-time, but constant, it makes sense to use it to make money. But do not rush to run to bet on all matches in a row, since such an approach is doomed to failure in advance. Let's analyze the criteria by which events will be selected for betting on goals in the final segment of the match.
1. Account difference
The advantage in the score at the close of the match should not exceed 2 goals. If the losing side needs only one goal to hold on to the points, then they will try their best to do it. When the outcome of the meeting is decided and the gap is more than 2-3 goals, then few people will waste their energy in vain.
Pay attention to an important nuance. If this is a two-match duel, then you need to take into account not the current score in the game, but the entire confrontation. The team can lose 0:3, but to reach the next stage, it only needs one goal.
2. Underdog wins
This happens with excessive passion for attacking actions. Footballers forget about defense and concede on the counterattack. In situations where the outsider scores first and leads in the score, there are high chances that the favorite will equalize or even make a comeback.
3. Derby or principled confrontation
If irreconcilable rivals or even eternal enemies are playing, then the desire to score a goal will not disappear even with a score of 4:0. And the team that loses will try in every possible way to score a goal of prestige.
4. Position in the standings
For example, in the group stage of European cups, in order to reach the playoff round, the team in the final round must beat the opponent with a difference of at least 3 goals. If in a duel she takes advantage of 2 goals, then by the end of the meeting she will definitely rush forward. He may not score, but here the enemy has a chance to catch the overworked team on the counterattack.
5. Too many shots on target
Let's move on to statistics. Of course, it would be foolish to bet on a goal before the final whistle if the opponents never hit the target. The more accurate shots, the higher the chances that the ball will reach the goal.
Read about how to bet on shots on target.
6. Removing a player
If the team has minus one player, it is more difficult for it to defend. But here the players begin to give all the best and run, as they say, "for themselves and that guy." With this nuance you need to be careful.
A great option is to remove the goalkeeper, especially if the coach has already used all the substitutions. No matter how well a field player stands in a frame, he is still not a goalkeeper.
7. Substitutions during the meeting
First of all, this concerns the exit of the player of the attacking plan. By the way, even if the teams have no motivation, it can be with an individual athlete who wants to prove himself by scoring a goal. Or it happens that the mentor decided to save the team leader. He was counting on an easy win, but it looks like he can't do without a better striker. The coach makes such a replacement - this increases the likelihood of a goal scored.
8. Team statistics
In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams that score and concede at the end of the match more often than others. It is in events with these teams that it is advisable to make such bets.
Summarizing
It is rather problematic to intuitively understand the most appropriate moment to bet on a goal at the end. Try to wait for the moment when quotes increase. It's a shame to monitor the event for a long time, but not have time to make a bet, since the goal has already happened.
Players often score after free kicks and set pieces, so if you're watching a live match with minimal delay, it would be a good idea to place a bet if you see something like this on the field. Naturally, the decision must be supported by analysis and correspond to the above factors.
Watch the video: Football role information
Often there are situations when the decisive goal is scored in the last minutes of the match. The fans have a true feeling that the clubs score in the last minutes in almost every match. Not surprisingly, last-minute goals are not uncommon. In any championship, most of the goals are scored in the last five minutes of a football confrontation.
Five-minute goal stats
For a simple example, let's analyze the performance statistics of the Russian championship of the 2016-2017 model. From 85 to 90 minutes, the most number of goals (48) were scored. With such an interesting trend, there is a chance to make good money for a bettor. However, if you bet on each subsequent match, then the bank will begin to decrease, not increase. Analysts from bookmakers are well aware that the probability of a goal scored in the last five minutes of the match is extremely high, so the odds are slightly underestimated. To select events, it is necessary to take into account factors that affect the probability of a goal scored at the end of the meeting.
Criteria for selection of football matches
In most Live strategies, there are many criteria for selecting matches where a goal is expected at the end of the meeting. Therefore, we highlight eight main factors that will help bettors calculate the events they need for a potential bet:
1. There is a score difference of less than two goals. It is more efficient to place bets when there is a one or two goal advantage for the team. In this case, the opponent is eager to win back, so he actively goes on the attack, leaving his own rear uncovered. In this case, most of the goals are scored from counterattacks.
2. The outsider wins. Often there are situations when a conditional outsider is the first to score the ball into the opponent's goal and leads the score. At the same time, the outsider does what he “sets the bus” and tries to achieve the retention of the desired result. Of course, in almost all cases, the favorite wins back, reducing the match to at least a draw. It is also likely that the outsider will strengthen his own success by scoring in the last minutes from a counterattack.
3. Significant confrontation. This factor is unique to the derby. Regardless of the score, each team tries to score a goal. The favorite tries to defeat the principal opponent, and the conditional outsider tries to answer the favorite and also win. In any case, the fight continues until the last minute.
4. Position in the standings. For the group stages in European competitions, there is a regularity in the goal difference. For example, a team needs to win an opponent by two goals to advance to the spring playoffs. When the score is 1:0, the team will try to score a second goal in order to get the desired result. In this case, it is also not necessary to exclude the opponent's goal on the counterattack.
5. No goalkeeper. Often there are situations when the goalkeeper is removed from the field, and the coach has spent three substitutions. In this situation, there is nothing left but to put a field player on the gate. Under such a combination of circumstances, the probability of a goal being scored increases.
6. The total number of shots on goal. It makes no sense to bet on a possible goal if teams rarely shoot on goal. The more shots the teams have on goal, the greater the chance of a goal being scored.
7. Replacement attack players. In most cases, coaches decide to replace the attackers in the end of the game. This decision is inherent in coaches whose teams lose by one goal or simply want to catch a losing opponent on the counterattack. At the same time, the football player has a good chance to show his own potential and prove himself for participation in the first team for the next game.
8. Club motivation. Often in each championship there are motivated teams for each subsequent match. It does not make sense what score is on the scoreboard. The main thing is that the team is constantly tuned to score the ball and plays in the attack all 90 minutes of the match.
Generalization
If you stick to your own intuition, then there will be no benefit in betting. It is important to know eight aspects of a team's quality play in the last minutes of matches. At the same time, you need to wait for the right moment when the bookmakers put up the most suitable quotes for the goal scored. It is in the last 2-3 minutes that the teams completely go to the opponent's half, providing an excellent opportunity to score the opponent from a counterattack.
With a qualitative analysis and taking into account eight aspects, you can make verified bets on events, increasing your own bank.
If you have been actively betting on football for several months, then you have probably come across a situation where the bet wins, but loses due to a goal in the last minutes. There is a feeling that in the end they score more often. And it is true. In almost any football championship, most goals occur in the final five minutes.
Goal stats by minute
Let's look at the RFPL performance chart by time intervals of the 2015/16 season (the overall picture has not changed over the past years). Most goals are scored in the last 5 minutes.
If there is such a trend, then why not make money on it? But if you bet on every match, then you will quickly go into the red. The bookmakers also understand that in the end the chances of a goal being scored increase, so the quotes in the prematch line for outcomes are underestimated.
The team will not try hard to score in the end if the game is already done and the score is, for example, 3:0. Use a strategy in live, but before you bet, select matches, taking into account the following factors.
Event selection criteria
No. 1 - the difference in the score is less than 2 goals. The desire to score a goal with a minimal superiority of the opponent is greater than with a difference of 2-3 goals.
No. 2 - an outsider leads in the account. If the underdog wins by one goal, then it is likely that the favorite will bounce back and draw, and possibly win. Or he will forget about defense and miss on the counterattack.
No. 3 - a principled match. In confrontations Roma - Lazio or Liverpool - Everton, teams tend to score regardless of the outcome of the match. The leader wants to increase superiority, while the losing side wants to close the gap or score a prestige goal. Some derbies have a hundred-year history, so the players fight to the end.
No. 4 - position in the table. At the group stages of European competitions, there are situations when in the final round the club needs to beat the opponent with a certain difference, for example, 3 goals. If the team wins 2:0, then in the end they will try to put pressure on the opponent in order to reach the playoffs.
No. 5 - removal of the goalkeeper. Not all teams have worthy replacements for the goalkeeper position. And when a field player puts on the goalkeeper's shirt and takes his place, the bet on a goal suggests itself.
No. 6 - shots on target. It makes no sense to bet on a goal in the last minutes if the players never hit the goal during the match. The more hits on the target, the higher the chances of a goal.
No. 7 is a strong attacking replacement. Even if the team does not have the desire to hit the opponent's goal, the player who appeared on the field from the bench may have it. The player needs to prove that he deserves a place in the starting lineup.
No. 8 - statistics of opponents. In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams. Some often lose during the match, but win, while others, on the contrary, are not able to keep the gained advantage. Bet on the games of just such opponents.
How to place a bet?
Consider a bet on the example of bookmaker 1xBet. Open live mode by clicking on the corresponding tab on the top panel. Specify the sport Football. Select an event. The game time is indicated near the name of the event, so it is easy to find the right match.
Expand the painting. Please note that in a duel the time does not last 45, but 40 minutes. Study the teams, match statistics. Watch the broadcast. Everything points to the goal of the hosts, but for insurance we will play the total total more.
