There are bets in the lists of bookmakers for a goal in the last minutes. Usually this is the last 10 or 15 minutes of the fight. If you take the statistics of goals from European and other championships, you will notice that the most goals are scored in the final period.
For a clear example of a strategy game, let’s look at the performance of teams from the Italian Championship:
We see that slightly less than half of the clubs have a goal scoring rate in the last 15 minutes of the match that exceeds 20%. Dedicated teams are suitable for this betting strategy. If on scored a goal in the last minutes one of the teams, then the bet will be winning.
Betting methodology
We will place bets online, in the middle of the second half. Matches are selected in advance, in which there are teams that have more than 25% of matches in which they scored goals in the final 15 minutes. In this case, the probability of a goal will be at least 50%.
Next, you should find those that offer quotes above 2 for similar positions. It is desirable that they approach 2.5. In that case goal in the last minutes will bring tangible profits. Playing at such odds will be profitable in the long term. You need to bet 5-5.5% of the bank.
Clubs need to be analyzed carefully. In every championship there are teams that have more than 30% of their meetings with goals at the end. They should be emphasized. These are not just teams that rely on attacking play. They must play stronger at the end of all matches and score often. An example of such clubs is Inter in 17-18, whose scoring rate exceeded 30%.
If two teams of approximately equal class meet with a high percentage of successful matches ending, then the probability of a goal in the final period will be very high.
When choosing clubs, you should definitely take into account their motivation. It’s optimal when both clubs need a win, but a draw is not an option. Return cup matches are approaching, in which one of the teams is always not satisfied with the current score.
You should skip the match if both teams are satisfied with the current score in the final period and they do not make an effort to score. Goals scored in the last minutes happen in the following matches:
- When the advantage of one of the teams is 1-2 goals. The opponent tries to score and moves forward with great strength. In such cases, the probability of a goal against any goal increases significantly.
- If there is a draw until the middle of the second half, which does not suit either side. In the end they are forced to attack with larger forces.
- If by the end of the game one of the teams big advantage by goals. The opponent is trying to score a prestige goal. The winning team doesn't really mind this.
The condition of the field should also be taken into account. If it is of poor quality, it is better to skip the game immediately. Rely on a set-piece or goal in extra time in such cases it is not worth it.
If you like to watch football often, you have probably watched a lot of goals in stoppage time. Sometimes your bet went through in the last second of the match, and sometimes it was the other way around. A goal in stoppage time would deny you the win. If you think that the majority of goals are scored in the final period of the match, then you are right.
If you divide the game into time periods of 5 minutes, then the final five minutes account for the largest number of goals scored.
A similar situation is observed in all football tournaments and every year, if it changes, it is insignificant. Since this pattern is not one-time, but permanent, it makes sense to use it to make money. But do not rush to run and place bets on all matches in a row, since this approach is doomed to failure in advance. Let's look at the criteria by which we will select events for betting on goals in the final segment of the match.
1. Difference in bill
The advantage in the score at the end of the match should not exceed 2 goals. If the losing side only needs one goal to secure points, they will try their best to do so. When the outcome of the match is decided and the lead is more than 2-3 goals, then few people will waste their energy.
Please note important nuance. If this is a two-game duel, then you need to take into account not the current score of the game, but the entire confrontation. A team may lose 0:3, but to reach next stage, one goal is enough for her.
2. Underdog wins
This happens when you are overly enthusiastic about attacking actions. Football players forget about defense and miss on the counterattack. In situations where the underdog has scored first and is leading, chances are high that the favorite will equalize the score or even make a comeback.
3. Derby or principled confrontation
If bitter rivals or even eternal enemies are playing, then the desire to score a goal will not disappear even when the score is 4:0. And the losing team will try in every possible way to score a prestige goal.
4. Position in the standings
For example, in the group stage of European Cups, in order to reach the play-off round, a team in final round must beat the opponent with a difference of at least 3 goals. If she gains a 2-goal advantage in the match, then at the end of the match she will definitely rush forward. Perhaps he won’t score, but here the enemy has a chance to catch the overplayed team on a counterattack.
5. A lot of shots on target
Let's move on to statistics. Of course, it would be foolish to bet on a goal before final whistle, if the opponents never hit the target. The more accurate hits, the higher the chances that the ball will reach the target.
Read about how to bet on shots on target.
6. Removing a player
If a team is minus one player, it is more difficult for it to defend. But here the players begin to give all their best and run, as they say, “for themselves and for that guy.” You need to be careful with this nuance.
An excellent option is to remove the goalkeeper, especially if the coach has already used all the substitutions. No matter how well a field player stands in the frame, he is still not a goalkeeper.
7. Substitutions during the meeting
First of all, this concerns the release of an attacking player. By the way, even if teams do not have motivation, an individual athlete who wants to prove himself by scoring a goal may have it. Or it happens that the mentor decided to take care of the team leader. He was counting on an easy victory, but it seemed he couldn't do it without his best striker. The coach makes such a substitution - this increases the likelihood of a goal being scored.
8. Team statistics
In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams that score more often than others and concede at the end of the match. It is in events with these teams that it is advisable to place such bets.
Let's summarize
It is quite problematic to intuitively understand the most appropriate moment to bet on a goal at the end. Try to wait for the moment when quotes increase. It’s very disappointing to monitor an event for a long time, but not have time to place a bet, since the goal has already happened.
Players often score from free kicks and set pieces, so if you're watching a match with minimal latency, it might be a good idea to place a bet if you see something like this on the pitch. Naturally, the decision must be supported by analysis and correspond to the above factors.
Watch the video: Football the role of information
There are often situations when the decisive goal is scored in the last minutes of the match. Fans have a real feeling that clubs score in the last minutes in almost every match. Not surprisingly, goals in the last minutes are not uncommon. In any championship, most goals are scored in the last five minutes of a football match.
Five-minute goal statistics
For simple example Let's analyze the performance statistics of the Russian championship of the 2016-2017 model. From 85 to 90 minutes the most goals were scored (48). With such an interesting trend, there is a chance for the bettor to make good money. However, if you bet on each subsequent match, the pot will begin to decrease rather than increase. Analysts from bookmakers are well aware that the probability of a goal being scored in the last five minutes of the match is extremely high, so the odds are slightly underestimated. To select events, you need to take into account factors that influence the probability of a goal being scored at the end of the match.
Selection criteria for football matches
Most Live strategies have many criteria for selecting matches where a goal is expected at the end of the match. Therefore, we will highlight eight main factors that will help bettors calculate the events they need for a potential bet:
1. The score difference is calculated to be less than two goals. It is more effective to place bets when the team has a one or two goal advantage. In this case, the opponent is eager to win back, so he actively goes on the attack, leaving his own rear exposed. In this case, most of the goals are scored from counterattacks.
2. The underdog wins. There are often situations when a conditional outsider is the first to score the ball into the opponent’s goal and takes the lead in the score. At the same time, what the outsider does is “put on the bus” and try to achieve the desired result. Of course, in almost all cases the favorite wins back, reducing the match to at least a draw. There is also a high probability that the outsider will strengthen his own success by scoring in the last minutes from a counterattack.
3. Significant confrontation. This factor is unique to derby. Regardless of the score, each team tries to score a goal. The favorite tries to defeat the main opponent, and the conditional outsider tries to answer the favorite and also get a victory. In any case, the fight continues until the last minute.
4. Position in the standings. For group stages in European competitions, there is a pattern in the difference in goals scored. For example, a team needs to win the opponent by two goals in order to advance to the spring playoffs. If the score is 1:0, the team will try to score a second goal in order to get desired result. In this case, you also shouldn’t rule out the opponent’s goal on the counterattack.
5. No goalkeeper. There are often situations when a goalkeeper is sent off the field, and the coach has spent three substitutions. In this situation, there is nothing left to do but put a field player on the goal. With this combination of circumstances, the likelihood of a goal being scored increases.
6. Total number of shots on goal. There is no point in betting on a possible goal if teams rarely shoot on goal. The more shots teams take on goal, the greater the likelihood of a goal being scored.
7. Substitution of attack players. In most cases, coaches decide to replace strikers at the end of the game. This solution is typical for coaches whose teams are losing by one goal or simply want to catch a losing opponent on a counterattack. At the same time, the football player has a good chance to show his own potential and establish himself for participation in the first team for the next game.
8. Club motivation. Often in each championship there are motivated teams for each subsequent match. It makes no sense what the score is on the scoreboard. The main thing is that the team is constantly determined to score a goal and plays attacking for the entire 90 minutes of the match.
Generalization
If you stick to your own intuition, then there will be no benefit in betting. It is important to know eight aspects of high-quality team play in the last minutes of matches. In this case, you need to wait for the right moment, when bookmakers offer the most suitable quotes for a scored goal. It is in the last 2-3 minutes that teams completely move into the opponent's half, providing an excellent opportunity to score against the opponent from a counterattack.
With a qualitative analysis and taking into account eight aspects, you can make verified bets on events, increasing your own bank.
If you have been actively betting on football for several months, you have probably encountered a situation where the bet wins, but loses due to a goal in the last minutes. There is a feeling that they score most often in the end. And it's true. In almost any football championship, most goals occur in the final five minutes.
Goal statistics by minute
Let's look at the RFPL performance graph by time intervals of the 2015/16 season (the overall picture has not changed in previous years). The last 5 minutes are where most goals are scored.
If there is such a trend, then why not make money on it? But if you bet on every match, you will quickly go into the red. Bookmakers also understand that in the end the chances of a goal being scored increase, so the quotes in the pre-match line for the outcomes are underestimated.
The team will not try with all its might to score in the end if the game is already done and the score is, for example, 3:0. Use the strategy live, but before betting, select matches taking into account the following factors.
Event selection criteria
No. 1 – the difference in the score is less than 2 goals. The desire to score a goal with a minimal advantage of the opponent is greater than with a difference of 2-3 goals.
No. 2 – the outsider leads the score. If the underdog wins by one goal, then there is a high probability that the favorite will win back and draw, and possibly win. Or he will forget about defense and miss on the counterattack.
No. 3 – a fundamental match. In confrontations between Roma - Lazio or Liverpool - Everton, teams strive to score regardless of the result of the match. The leader wants to increase their advantage, and the losing side wants to reduce the gap or score a prestige goal. Some derbies have a hundred-year history, so the players fight until the end.
No. 4 – position in the table. On group stages In European Cups, there are situations where in the final round the club needs to beat the opponent with a certain difference, for example, 3 goals. If the team wins 2:0, then in the end it will try to crush the opponent in order to reach the playoffs.
No. 5 – removal of the goalkeeper. Not all teams have worthy replacements for the goalkeeper position. And when a field player puts on the goalkeeper’s shirt and takes his place, a bet on a goal suggests itself.
No. 6 – shots on target. There is no point in betting on a goal in the last minutes if the players never hit the goal during the match. The more hits on target, the higher the chances of scoring.
No. 7 is a strong attacking replacement. Even if the team does not have the desire to hit the opponent’s goal, a player who appeared on the field from the bench may have it. The player needs to prove that he deserves a place in the starting lineup.
No. 8 – statistics of opponents. In every championship there are strong-willed and weak-willed teams. Some lose more often during the match, but win, while others, on the contrary, are unable to maintain the advantage they have gained. Bet on these exact opponents.
How to place a bet?
Let's consider a bet using the example of bookmaker 1xBet. Open live mode by clicking on the corresponding tab on the top panel. Specify the sport Football. Select an event. The game time is indicated next to the event name, so it is easy to find a suitable match.
Expand the painting. Please note that in a duel the time lasts not 45, but 40 minutes. Study the teams and match statistics. Watch the broadcast. Everything points to a goal for the hosts, but to be on the safe side, we’ll play a larger total.
